SUPERBOWL XLV

And so we come to SUPERBOWL XLV.. The centrepiece and grand finale to a thrilling season of pigskin-throwing. Let's get one thing straight: I'm excited. Extremely excited. Salivating, in fact. My keyboard is somewhat slippery...

When the teams for the championship round were decided I knew there was only one match-up for me, and that is indeed the match-up we find out ourselves looking at for this monday morning: the Green Bay Packers versus the Pittsburgh Steelers.

THE UNEDUCATED ANALYSIS

Essentially this game boils down to this: the Packers have an astonishing array of offensive weapons, and the Steelers have an iron wall defensive unit that has won Superbowls in recent seasons. Offense versus Defense. The Irresistible Force versus the Immovable Object.

Both teams played terrific first halves last week only to let their opponents claw their way back into the contest. Green Bay in particular should be concerned with the way they let Chicago's third-string QB dictate terms and make plays late in the NFC Championship. Pittsburgh's first half in the AFC Championship was as good a half of football as I have seen all year. It was an utter and complete domination of a Jets team who were riding high after knocking out the hot favourite Patriots, and proof that the Steelers have a Superbowl-winning offense as well as a defense. However, they too let their opponents back in, and the Jets almost obliged by stealing the game.

PREDICTION

It's a tough one to predict. It seems, on the face of it, to be a very even contest. My gut says Steelers. The bookmakers say Green Bay, with them leading betting favouritsm at $1.71, with the Steelers sitting at the ASTONISHING price of $2.17 (Sportingbet). That is great value for the Steelers, especially given their Superbowl experience.

So the match (AKA bold predictions that are pretty much guesses): I'll take the Steelers in a close one. A low-scoring first half followed by a more offensively-dominated second half. I predict the team losing at half-time will win in the end, and I believe the difference between the two teams will come down to a couple of big defensive plays. For Green Bay, possibly Clay Matthews tearing through the defense and hitting Big Ben with a couple of hearty and vigourous SACKS. And for Pittsburgh, Troy Polumalu sniffing out a big interception with the game on the line.


Go forth, drink American beverages, gamble with semi-recklessness, eat footstuffs that will clog your arteries, and celebrate all that is ludicriously American on a monday morning. It's probably the only monday of the year you will do such things, so do it well.

EPIC!

NFL PLAYOFFS WEEK 2

Eight teams left in the hunt for the Vince Lombardi Trophy at Superbowl 45. What did we learn in the first week? Nothing is set in stone, as evidenced by Seattle's stunning upset over the Saints. Green Bay are still alive and looking dangerous. We learnt that the NFL Playoffs are unpredictable. Predicting them is tough, but well-paid if you get it right. "BREAK IT DOWN NOW!"

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS.

The Ravens were tipped to be big improvers this year, but from little I've seen of them I think this team is still about as good as they were last year. So too are the Steelers. The Steelers have a double-Superbowl winning Quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger, and Joe Flacco looks good for the Ravens but still maybe a year off being awesome. Pundits are predicting a defensive grind, and I like the Steelers for that. It's their style. It's also the Ravens style, but I think the Steelers will win the grind.


GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS.

Green Bay intercepted a Michael Vick pass in the dying seconds that would've won the game for the Eagles. But the pass didn't connect, and Green Bay won. This game may also come down to the final play, and whoever holds their nerve in the clutch will come away with the chocolates. The Packers have got the game plan to beat the Falcons, and the Packers are a team that can get on a roll and break a close game apart. I predict a close game.. The Packers will have to win away from home again, but why not? I like the Packers, and one thinks they get behind on the scoreboard and have to play a little reckless they might actually kick-start a roll all the way to the Superbowl.


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS.

So Seattle had to upset the Rams to first make the playoffs, and then host the defending Superbowl champions in week one. And yet they're still alive. How? A combination of unwavering belief, homefield advantage, and potentially being underestimated by their opponents. Unfortunately, this combination doesn't win Superbowls. The Seahawks are a dramatically different team on the road: in summary, they're much worse. Yes, they're my team. And yes, they've been the feel-good story of the playoffs. And yes, they beat Chicago in Chicago earlier in the year. Can they do it again?

No. That self-belief will crumble if Seattle get behind early, and playing away from their inspirational home crowd means they're pretty much on their own. . But for the romantics out there, Seattle are still a chance. Last week they ambushed the Saints. I have a feeling the Bears will be far more alert to the potential upset. As such I think if both teams play their best football, Chicago will win.


NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS.

New York's coach has a reputation for a big mouth and bold predictions for his team. That mouth was slammed shut when his Jets sauntered onto Gillette Stadium in Week 13 and got their arses handed to them on a plate, with a side of fries, ketchup and a giant Coke, to the tune on 45-3. I mean, it was brutal. The Patriots destroyed the Jets. Now we have round two. The stakes are higher, it's the playoffs: the winner advances and the loser goes home. I think this game will be much tighter, and that the Jets will bring everything they've got. However, I think the Patriots will have all the answers. At their best the Patriots are just a cut above, and only a severe lack of mental application will stop them from powering past the Jets.


Betting Value: Ride the Green Bay Packers, $2.15 to beat Atlanta, $6 to win the Superbowl.

Roughie: Ride the feel-good story that is Seattle. You'll get $4.50 for them to beat Chicago.

TOUCHDOWN!

NFL PLAYOFFS PREVIEW

The NFL playoffs are upon us, which means there will be some ripping games of pigskin-throwing coming up on the road to Superbowl XLV (45). I shall give you a brief pick of the weeks games from an entertainment perspective, and, naturally, give you some wildly inaccurate tips on how to lose your money (AKA gambling).

THE BEST TEAM

If you like to believe that the best team will win everything then your team is the New England Patriots. They have been playing the best football across the league, they have a coach and a quarterback who have won multiple Superbowls, and they have a great range of talented receivers that have stepped up since the departure of Randy Moss.

However, does the favourite ever win? History, and the unpredictable nature of the sport, suggests not. So when, and to whom will the Patriots potentially fall? My theory is if they are to trip up anywhere it will be against the Pittsburgh Steelers, whom they are likely to play against for the AFC Championship. The Steelers, for me, are great betting value at $5.75 (Sportingbet), and if they can upset the Patriots I think they will go on to win the Superbowl.

GAME OF THE WEEKEND

Two explosive offensive teams that could reach the Superbowl square off this weekend in the Wild-card round. For me, the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Green Bay Packers is easily the pick of the week. If both teams play attacking football then it should a high-scoring affair. And at $2.15 the Packer represent terrific betting value, and if you're looking for a Superbowl roughie (AKA a cheeky fiver) then I also nominate the Packers. Of course, if they lose this match, it's over. So... the stakes are high this week.

BEST VALUE SUPERBOWL WINNER: Pittsburgh Steelers ($5.75 Sportingbet, $6.5 Centrebet)

SUPERBOWL ROUGHIE: Green Bay Packers ($12 Sportingbet, $14 Centrebet)

VALUE BET FOR THE WEEKEND: Packers to beat the Eagles at home in the Wild-card round ($2.15)

The Packers-Eagles clash is at 8.35AM Australian Eastern Time, Monday morning.