RUGBY WORLD CUP PREVIEW

Rugby World Cups are nervous times for All Blacks fans. We won the first one, and have gone in favourite for almost every tournament since then. And lost. And yet again we find ourselves going in red-hot favourites, and on home soil.

So let's not muck around. The All Blacks will win this World Cup.

There, I said it. They are the best team in the world, and simply put, they cannot afford to lose. In 1999 England bowed out in the quarter-final stage. Instead of rashly sacking the coach like many would, they kept him, and the team came back four years later to steal the William Webb Ellis trophy on Australian soil. Graham Henry has had eight years to craft this victory. They simply cannot afford to lose.

To get the final the All Blacks will beat South Africa. In other semi-final I predict Australia to LOSE to England... Yeah. Lose. The English team tend to punch above their weight in World Cups, much like the NZ Cricket team. They also play a powerful forward game that has had Australia's measure in recent times (the most recent a 35-18 belting in 2010). This Australian team is good, but I think they are getting ahead of themselves. After their recent victory over the All Blacks in Brisbane I think the Wallabies are eyeing a showdown at Eden Park.

Unfortunately they will fall, at the same venue, a week early. To England.

All Blacks for the William Webb Ellis Cup a week later.

Argentina for the wild-card.

US OPEN PREVIEW

The tennis story of 2011 has, without a doubt, been the rise of The Djoker, Novak Djokovic. For a while he seemed destined to be forever a bridesmaid, lurking in the shadows of one of tennis' greatest rivalries Federer-Nadal. To be the Stuart McGill of men's tennis.

Now suddenly he's broken through a mental barrier (that barrier apparently being gluten, go figure) and now he's the world number one, has two grand slams for the year, and recording some pretty remarkable stats against some extraordinary adversaries. The storied rivalry of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer is now suddenly a threesome. And like all threesomes it's a bit awkward at first, but once you get used to the idea it's pretty damn good.

Tennis is no longer a two-horse race. There are five or six genuine contenders in the pack. So who win?

Djovokic? Odds-wise he's the favourite... Good luck getting anything beyond the $3 mark. But will he win? I say no. To do it he would have to go through both Federer and Nadal, and quite frankly I think that is a big enough mountain to climb as it is, let alone the fact he's carrying a shoulder niggle that forced him to retire hurt against Murray in the recent Cincinatti tournament. I think this shoulder injury will force Djokovic out of this tournament early, at the latest in the predicted semi-final with Federer, but potentially even earlier.

Nadal? Well... with Djokovic out of the running Nadal is the obvious choice. Nadal would ideally meet Murray in the semis. And you know what? I'm taking Murray. Murray seems to rise to the occasion against Nadal, and I'm tipping him to upset Nadal and storm into the final.

So Murray for US OPEN champion? Well no... There's still one man we haven't touched on. The Swiss Master.

With all the attention on the incredible rise of Novak Djokovic Federer has been a little subdued, slipping quietly under the radar. John McEnroe has done his best to ensure all eyes will be on Murray with his bold prediction that Murray would win, and it would seem the chances are running out for Roger to win Grand Slam number 17. His so-called "demise" has been falsely reported for the last few years, pretty much every time he doesn't win a Grand Slam. The reality is he is aging, and the rest of the tennis world has caught up. With the emergence of Nadal, Djokovic, and the upcoming rise of the beast Del Potro Federer's time has, unfortunately ended.

But playing his best tennis I think Roger Federer is still the best in the world. And if he plays his best here, I believe he will win the 2011 US OPEN.

So... Roger Federer to win Grand Slam no. 17 in four sets against Andy Murray. Murray to pull a 'Djokovic' and give up gluten in the aftermath.


WOMEN'S

Let me go on record as saying 'I love women's tennis.' Not just on a superficial level, like most blokes, but as general enjoyment. I think as a spectacle it holds up against the men.

However, women's tennis is a far more inconsistent beast to predict. The field is more even, and there just seem to be a lot of upsets all the time. The three-set format encourages more upsets than the five-set. So where do you start?

The Williams sisters? Nah... too obvious. Whilst they have the power game to obliterate all before them, I think their attitudes let them down. They don't have the steely focus and determined shown by Nadal and Federer.. If they lose, they lose. And they move on. And so shall I.

Sharapova? Meh... To be honest, I didn't like the way she got pushed around by a relative unknown in the Wimbledon final. Plus the shrieking? Please... spare me.

Li Na? Yeah, maybe worth a cheeky fiver. She seems to worm her way amongst the chocolates more often than not.

Dinara Safina? HAHAHAHAHAHA!.. Oh dear.. sorry. Couldn't resist. Even I would have a better chance of winning, and I'm a bloke.

And so my cheeky outsider is Petra Kvitova, the aforementioned relative outsider that put the shrieking Sharapova firmly in her place. I liked the cut of her gib (do girls have gibs?). She plays a no-nonsense, powerful style of tennis, and she seemed to have a good tactical head. And the way she dealt with the pressure of Wimbledon? Remarkable. I almost expected her to pull out a sudoku in the break between ends.

So there you have it. Roger for the win, Li Na for a cheeky fiver, and Petra Kvitova to put the tennis world on notice and claim her second Grand Slam for the year.

Sportingbet odds:

Federer - $5.75
Li Na - $17
Petra Kvitova - $12

AND WE'RE BACK!

Blogs are like puppies and kittens. They are immensely exciting and absorb all your time and energies, but as the thing grows older it is difficult to match your enthusiasm.. You get distracted by other, newer, shinier objects, and the blog falls into neglect.

Well, NO MORE!

After an image make-over A CHEEKY FIVER returns from a slumberous winter and is back for the on-break of Spring and some riveting sporting action. In the coming weeks:

THE RUGBY WORLD CUP PREVIEW (can the AB's break the duck, or will Cooper and Genia manufacture yet another heartbreak for Richie's men?)

US OPEN PREVIEW (will The Djoker's shoulder tweak open the door for Murray?)

THE AFL & NRL FINALS PREVIEW (will my prophecy of a Cats v Hawks come true?)

NFL SEASON PREVIEW (it's pigskin tossing time!)

That's it sports fans! Load up the betting account, grab a six-pack and get ready for an ONSLAUGHT OF SPORT!

SUPERBOWL XLV

And so we come to SUPERBOWL XLV.. The centrepiece and grand finale to a thrilling season of pigskin-throwing. Let's get one thing straight: I'm excited. Extremely excited. Salivating, in fact. My keyboard is somewhat slippery...

When the teams for the championship round were decided I knew there was only one match-up for me, and that is indeed the match-up we find out ourselves looking at for this monday morning: the Green Bay Packers versus the Pittsburgh Steelers.

THE UNEDUCATED ANALYSIS

Essentially this game boils down to this: the Packers have an astonishing array of offensive weapons, and the Steelers have an iron wall defensive unit that has won Superbowls in recent seasons. Offense versus Defense. The Irresistible Force versus the Immovable Object.

Both teams played terrific first halves last week only to let their opponents claw their way back into the contest. Green Bay in particular should be concerned with the way they let Chicago's third-string QB dictate terms and make plays late in the NFC Championship. Pittsburgh's first half in the AFC Championship was as good a half of football as I have seen all year. It was an utter and complete domination of a Jets team who were riding high after knocking out the hot favourite Patriots, and proof that the Steelers have a Superbowl-winning offense as well as a defense. However, they too let their opponents back in, and the Jets almost obliged by stealing the game.

PREDICTION

It's a tough one to predict. It seems, on the face of it, to be a very even contest. My gut says Steelers. The bookmakers say Green Bay, with them leading betting favouritsm at $1.71, with the Steelers sitting at the ASTONISHING price of $2.17 (Sportingbet). That is great value for the Steelers, especially given their Superbowl experience.

So the match (AKA bold predictions that are pretty much guesses): I'll take the Steelers in a close one. A low-scoring first half followed by a more offensively-dominated second half. I predict the team losing at half-time will win in the end, and I believe the difference between the two teams will come down to a couple of big defensive plays. For Green Bay, possibly Clay Matthews tearing through the defense and hitting Big Ben with a couple of hearty and vigourous SACKS. And for Pittsburgh, Troy Polumalu sniffing out a big interception with the game on the line.


Go forth, drink American beverages, gamble with semi-recklessness, eat footstuffs that will clog your arteries, and celebrate all that is ludicriously American on a monday morning. It's probably the only monday of the year you will do such things, so do it well.

EPIC!

NFL PLAYOFFS WEEK 2

Eight teams left in the hunt for the Vince Lombardi Trophy at Superbowl 45. What did we learn in the first week? Nothing is set in stone, as evidenced by Seattle's stunning upset over the Saints. Green Bay are still alive and looking dangerous. We learnt that the NFL Playoffs are unpredictable. Predicting them is tough, but well-paid if you get it right. "BREAK IT DOWN NOW!"

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS.

The Ravens were tipped to be big improvers this year, but from little I've seen of them I think this team is still about as good as they were last year. So too are the Steelers. The Steelers have a double-Superbowl winning Quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger, and Joe Flacco looks good for the Ravens but still maybe a year off being awesome. Pundits are predicting a defensive grind, and I like the Steelers for that. It's their style. It's also the Ravens style, but I think the Steelers will win the grind.


GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS.

Green Bay intercepted a Michael Vick pass in the dying seconds that would've won the game for the Eagles. But the pass didn't connect, and Green Bay won. This game may also come down to the final play, and whoever holds their nerve in the clutch will come away with the chocolates. The Packers have got the game plan to beat the Falcons, and the Packers are a team that can get on a roll and break a close game apart. I predict a close game.. The Packers will have to win away from home again, but why not? I like the Packers, and one thinks they get behind on the scoreboard and have to play a little reckless they might actually kick-start a roll all the way to the Superbowl.


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS.

So Seattle had to upset the Rams to first make the playoffs, and then host the defending Superbowl champions in week one. And yet they're still alive. How? A combination of unwavering belief, homefield advantage, and potentially being underestimated by their opponents. Unfortunately, this combination doesn't win Superbowls. The Seahawks are a dramatically different team on the road: in summary, they're much worse. Yes, they're my team. And yes, they've been the feel-good story of the playoffs. And yes, they beat Chicago in Chicago earlier in the year. Can they do it again?

No. That self-belief will crumble if Seattle get behind early, and playing away from their inspirational home crowd means they're pretty much on their own. . But for the romantics out there, Seattle are still a chance. Last week they ambushed the Saints. I have a feeling the Bears will be far more alert to the potential upset. As such I think if both teams play their best football, Chicago will win.


NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS.

New York's coach has a reputation for a big mouth and bold predictions for his team. That mouth was slammed shut when his Jets sauntered onto Gillette Stadium in Week 13 and got their arses handed to them on a plate, with a side of fries, ketchup and a giant Coke, to the tune on 45-3. I mean, it was brutal. The Patriots destroyed the Jets. Now we have round two. The stakes are higher, it's the playoffs: the winner advances and the loser goes home. I think this game will be much tighter, and that the Jets will bring everything they've got. However, I think the Patriots will have all the answers. At their best the Patriots are just a cut above, and only a severe lack of mental application will stop them from powering past the Jets.


Betting Value: Ride the Green Bay Packers, $2.15 to beat Atlanta, $6 to win the Superbowl.

Roughie: Ride the feel-good story that is Seattle. You'll get $4.50 for them to beat Chicago.

TOUCHDOWN!

NFL PLAYOFFS PREVIEW

The NFL playoffs are upon us, which means there will be some ripping games of pigskin-throwing coming up on the road to Superbowl XLV (45). I shall give you a brief pick of the weeks games from an entertainment perspective, and, naturally, give you some wildly inaccurate tips on how to lose your money (AKA gambling).

THE BEST TEAM

If you like to believe that the best team will win everything then your team is the New England Patriots. They have been playing the best football across the league, they have a coach and a quarterback who have won multiple Superbowls, and they have a great range of talented receivers that have stepped up since the departure of Randy Moss.

However, does the favourite ever win? History, and the unpredictable nature of the sport, suggests not. So when, and to whom will the Patriots potentially fall? My theory is if they are to trip up anywhere it will be against the Pittsburgh Steelers, whom they are likely to play against for the AFC Championship. The Steelers, for me, are great betting value at $5.75 (Sportingbet), and if they can upset the Patriots I think they will go on to win the Superbowl.

GAME OF THE WEEKEND

Two explosive offensive teams that could reach the Superbowl square off this weekend in the Wild-card round. For me, the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Green Bay Packers is easily the pick of the week. If both teams play attacking football then it should a high-scoring affair. And at $2.15 the Packer represent terrific betting value, and if you're looking for a Superbowl roughie (AKA a cheeky fiver) then I also nominate the Packers. Of course, if they lose this match, it's over. So... the stakes are high this week.

BEST VALUE SUPERBOWL WINNER: Pittsburgh Steelers ($5.75 Sportingbet, $6.5 Centrebet)

SUPERBOWL ROUGHIE: Green Bay Packers ($12 Sportingbet, $14 Centrebet)

VALUE BET FOR THE WEEKEND: Packers to beat the Eagles at home in the Wild-card round ($2.15)

The Packers-Eagles clash is at 8.35AM Australian Eastern Time, Monday morning.

DUMMIES GUIDE TO AMERICAN FOOTBALL

American Football (AKA Gridiron), with it's numerous stoppages, complex rule structure, enormous level of commercialism, and generally ludicrious levels of American outrageous-ness is often put in the 'too-hard' basket by sports fans on this side of the globe.

From the outside it does appear a tough sport to get into, but with a basic knowledge of the rules and structure of the game it can become a lot more accessible to your average sports fan. Plus the NFL season starts in late August, making it the perfect filler for that awkward period when the AFL and NRL seasons finish and the cricket season starts.

THE BASICS

The aim of the game to get the ball down to the other end of the field, much like rugby or league. Like league, you only get a certain number of tackles (or downs) to do so. In Gridiron you get four. With those four tackles you need to move the ball ten yards (9ish metres). If you successfully move the ball ten yards you get a fresh set of tackles/downs. In effect, you can crab your way slowly down-field as long you keep hitting those ten yards.

There are essentially two ways to move the ball: throw the ball, or run the ball. The Quarterback (AKA probably the most important player) is in charge of throwing the ball, and he stands behind the defensive linesmen (AKA the fat guys at the front), whose job it is to project the Quarterback from the other team's fatties. The rest of his team will spread out and run down the field, in an attempt to catch the ball thrown by the QB. The other option is to run the ball, where the QB hands the ball to a designated runner who runs straight at the wall of defensive fatties looking for a hole.

Other Basics

Getting the ball into the end-zone (what in rugby would be a 'try') is a touchdown. It is worth six points with an easy one-point conversion. The other most common scoring play is a field goal, worth three points, where the ball is placed on the ground for a designated kicker to kick it through the goals. The game is played in four 15-minute quarters.

With even this most basic knowledge sitting comfortably in the back your mind, you should find the experience of watching an American Football game less confusing, and hopefully more enjoyable.. With the playoffs about to begin there couldn't be a better time to jump in, especially with the Aussies being so shit at the cricket at the moment.